guide 01 · 6 min read
Expected value, in one page
The single number that decides whether a bonus is worth your money. Start here.
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Six short guides on the concepts that decide whether a bonus is worth your money. Read in any order. The first one (expected value) is the pillar; every other guide assumes you understand it.
what's here
Plain-English explainers for the six concepts that show up in every bonus calculation.
how long
Roughly 4 to 6 minutes per guide. The full set takes under half an hour.
prefer one read?
The methodology page covers all of it in one go, with the worked examples in line.
guide 01 · 6 min read
The single number that decides whether a bonus is worth your money. Start here.
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guide 02 · 5 min read
What 35x means in euros, why game weighting matters, and how WR quietly kills most offers.
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guide 03 · 5 min read
Where your long-run cost comes from. Two numbers that explain why the casino stays in business.
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guide 04 · 5 min read
The math says roughly 95% of welcome bonuses have negative EV. Here is what the 5% look like.
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guide 05 · 5 min read
Not every '200 free spins' is worth €200. The formula, the traps, and what to look for in the T&Cs.
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guide 06 · 4 min read
A €100 cap on a €100 bonus quietly halves its value. How to spot caps and price them in.
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reference · lookup
About 35 terms, alphabetical, each with a one-sentence definition and a cross-link to the deeper guide where one exists. Use Ctrl+F or the letter index to jump to a term.
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reference · full read
Formula, default assumptions, worked examples, free-spin valuation, cashout caps, and the limits of the model, all in one read.
Read the methodology